High Conviction Ideas
Elite-tier NFTs like Punks, Squiggles and Winds of Yawanawa will likely do well in a bull market
Welcome to The Metadata. We round up everything you need to know about NFTs.
Today we cover:
One high conviction trade idea
What’s happening with Blur on 20 Nov
Our favourite tweets. Lots of gaming news, its exciting.
Source: @hildobby, Dune
There we have it. A significant rise in NFT trading volumes that peaked at $28 million daily volume on Saturday, before moderating to around $17 million. This is still 2 - 3X higher than the average volumes over most of this year, a good sign.
Let’s be clear though. This is likely driven by sidelined capital already in crypto that is buying up NFTs in anticipation of a new bull market, rather than fresh capital inflows. Institutions & retail aren’t buying our NFTs, yet. A telling sign of this is the relatively stable number of daily traders, which hasn’t seen a significant increase despite the uptick in prices.
Let’s take a look at how some of our trade ideas from last week are doing:
Doodles. From 1.8E to 2.1E floor price (+16%)
Mittaria Genesis. From 0.39E to 0.44E (+11%), and as high as 0.6E
SHRAP. Token launched at $0.08, now it is at $0.10, with a fully diluted valuation of $300M now
High Conviction Idea #1
CryptoPunks show that they're the 👑.
Last week, there were >100 punk sales with prices rising 15%. What’s driving this?
Punks are unique. They straddle between art and PFP — perhaps the best of both worlds. In fact, they are more akin to museum artifacts. Nothing can… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
— Teng Yan 🥕| Delphi (@0xPrismatic)
Nov 14, 2023
Here’s the thesis for acquiring elite-tier NFTs in preparation for an NFT market recovery.
“But most importantly, mindsets have changed.
People are starting to believe that we’re entering a new cycle, perhaps even a glorious bull run. And that means those who see punks as top-tier assets and want to own more (quite a lot of people, IMO) can no longer afford to watch and wait, like they’ve been doing these past months. They need to act, lest they miss the boat. And so they buy. And it sucks in others who see this activity and fear they’ll miss out too.”
Besides the punks, we believe that Chromie Squiggles (9.3E) and Winds of Yawanawa (8.3E) also fall into this category and will accrue cultural value over the long-term.
BLUR: Watch for 20 Nov
For those deeply interested in the NFT space, November 20th is a date to circle in your calendars. This marks the conclusion of Blur Season 2 and the release of 300M+ tokens. Here's a breakdown of scenarios we're anticipating:
Blur announces a big new product launch (high probability). We think NFT perpetuals are on the table.
There's speculation that S2 rewards might be distributed over a period rather than in a single tranche to ease sell pressure (low-moderate probability)
The launch of a Season 3 incentive program appears almost certain
BLUR has had a good run up on token price these weeks, from its low of $0.15 to $0.35 now (+133%). This surge seems to be fueled by a mix of factors: a short squeeze, sidelined yet interested investors and funds jumping into the fray, and (potentially) insider buying from those privy to Blur's upcoming announcement on November 20th.
Take note: all of this is just speculation, we don’t have any inside information. But it’s going to be an exciting week.
Our Favourite Tweets
🐥 sparkc on how to value gaming NFTs
Inspired by my joint game review with @apixtwts, here's 3 tips for valuing gaming NFTs-
How to stop getting baited by garbage utility.
— sparkc | WolvesDAO (@sparkcsays)
Nov 2, 2023
🐥 Best way to onboard new users
I've emerged from a deep dive into UX onboarding flows with some Web2-inspired advice for crypto-native apps.
"Removing Web3’s Friction: Pt.1 Progressive Onboarding and Games"
Lessons and warnings from Web2's @MARVELSNAP and Web3's @primodiumgame.
— Will Robinson ✈️ DevConnect (@DangerWillRobin)
Nov 7, 2023
🐥 PRIME going for its open beta in December
Open beta for $PRIME in roughly a month. Expecting fireworks
— Erebos (@Erebos991)
Nov 6, 2023
🐥 Illuvium will go live on Epic Games store on 28 Nov
🌟 Major Announcement, Rangers! 🌟
Mark your calendars for November 28th! The moment you've all been waiting for is here! Illuvium Beta 3: PVP is coming, and that's not all—we’re live on the @EpicGames Store! While you can’t download it just yet, add it to your wishlist and… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
— Illuvium (@illuviumio)
Nov 8, 2023
🐥 Hunter outlines Yuga Lab’s plans
Yuga finally announced their next plans 👀
The next 12 months are going to be exciting for the Yacht Club
After receiving FUD because of APE price performance and the "disconnect" from the community it seems like Yuga is back
The most bullish part of… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
— Hunter Solaire ᵍᵐ (@huntersolaire_)
Nov 10, 2023
🐥 Roblox, one of the largest metaverses with 65M+ daily active users, is considering NFTs. How bullish it that
NEWS: Roblox CEO talks about adding gaming NFTs to the platform
— Pluid (@tryPluid)
Nov 10, 2023
🐥 Pixelmon is probably planning a token
PARTNERSHIP ANNOUNCEMENT - HORIZEN LABS VENTURES
We're excited to announce our partnership with Horizen Labs Ventures (@HLV_XYZ).
HLV is a top tier Web3 advisory firm specialising in fungible token launches. Their partners have included ApeCoin, Dust Labs, and Animoca Brands.… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
— Pixelmon (@Pixelmon)
Nov 10, 2023
🐥 SuperRare rebuilding from grounds up
Fun fact, we're rebuilding @SuperRare from the ground up and this drop with @VanArman will be the first release. It's still very experimental but we are too excited not to ship early.
Incredible art + new and improved UX = 😍
— SuperRare John 💎 (@SuperRareJohn)
Nov 10, 2023
🐥 Li Jin on the Love → Fame spectrum for social apps
New blog: All social apps fall on a spectrum from love to fame, appealing to users’ desire for deeper connection (love) vs. reach (fame).
Mature social networks trend toward fame over time, leaving a vacuum for newer entrants to serve smaller communities:
— Li Jin (@ljin18)
Nov 9, 2023
🐥 Matt gives the TL;dr on Jack Butcher’s Checks
The Checks collectors guide is now live ✔️
Checks is one of my favourite digital art collections, however, the depth of the ideas Checks explores makes it difficult for newcomers to appreciate this collection
The goal of this guide is to have a single source of information new… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
— Matt O Brien (@mattob_eth)
Nov 7, 2023
🐥 A summary of the state of Treasure / MAGIC today
Big thread on the state of the Treasure ecosystem now that crypto is becoming cool agin 👇
Treasure is building an interconnected network of games and builders. A set of tightly-connected game worlds with overlapping narrative and economies.
— ✨ John Patten (@jpatten__)
Nov 7, 2023
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Disclaimer: This newsletter is for educational purposes only. None of this is financial or investment advice. It is not a solicitation to buy or sell any assets. Minting and buying NFTs is risky. Please do your own research.