Milady vs BAYC
How to identify PFP trends early, using on-chain data
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Today we cover:
Tuesday Deep Dive: What we can learn from Milady and how to identify early trends
Is Blur dying and taking NFTs along with it?
Sam Spratt’s NFT collection sells out in 2 minutes (that’s $1M worth)
Market Update: Blood in the Streets
The Forkast 500 NFT index, which tracks top NFT collection prices across multiple blockchains, is down 7% on the week.
And our beloved NFT collections? They've taken a nosedive too, crashing 20% across the board. Everyone's pointing fingers and, as usual, Blur is the scapegoat. It’s the easier target out there. But we think it’s all just cope in a market with little organic demand today.
Bored Ape Yacht Club (23 ETH, -22% from last week)
Mutant Ape Yacht Club (4.3 ETH, -27%)
DeGods (3.8 ETH, -22%)
Azuki (3.5 ETH, -29%)
Pudgy Penguins (3.7 ETH, -9%)
A Tale of Two PFPs — BAYC vs Milady
Bored Apes (and most NFTs for that matter) have been bleeding down. But there’s one 10K PFP collection that’s bucked the trend — Milady.
We thought it’ll be interesting to look at some data and see if we can find the alpha that helps us identify the next early trade.
(Charts here from Nansen)
💲 Price Trends
Bored Ape Yacht Club — Price & Volume
Milady — Price & Volume
It’s pretty obvious that BAYC and Milady are on different trajectories, at least in terms of price. The floor price for BAYC has just been down only, falling over 50% to 23 ETH now. A lot of people are blaming Blur farmers for this: they have been selling their inventory as BLUR airdrop farming becomes less & less enticing as the token falls in price.
Milady, on the other hand, has been a shining star. After a period of stagnation, it saw a 50% price increase this month.
Bored Ape Yacht Club — Number of Unique Wallets
Ownership tells a tale of two trends. The common idea is that a higher unique ownership means that less supply is in the hands of whales who are often speculators and not long-term holders.
BAYC has enjoyed high unique ownership, hovering at 60%+ for most of 2022. On the surface, this might seem positive, but it's been on a downward trend since the start of 2023, a concerning development.
Milady — Number of Unique Wallets
Milady started with a low base, around 30% unique ownership, but has been climbing steadily since February 2023, now at 36%. It's a slow and steady race to the top, and Milady seems to be winning. At first glance, a low % of unique ownership appears negative for price, but it doesn’t seem so.
🤑 Number of Listings
Bored Ape Yacht Club — Number of NFTs listed on OpenSea
The number of listings provides another interesting perspective. BAYC has seen a 70% rise in listings on OpenSea over the past 90 days (from ~300 to 500+ now), suggesting that more owners are looking to sell.
Owners that list their NFTs typically have a higher intention to sell compared to who haven’t listed.
Milady — Number of NFTs listed on marketplaces
In contrast, the number of Milady NFTs listed was pretty high in May (900+) but has been on a downtrend since. Listed NFTs have fallen 45% to ~500 today.
Both BAYC and Milady have approximately the same number of NFTs listed, but very different trends.
So, what's the big picture? Ownership and listings can be like tea leaves, giving us clues about the price trend of an NFT collection:
The absolute % of unique owners and NFTs listed is not so important, because there are different dynamics with every project (mint structure etc). Single point in time comparisons are less helpful.
Rather, the most important thing to watch for is the trend.
Rising % of unique ownership + Falling % of listings = Positive signal for price. And vice versa.
Of course, this is not a foolproof indicator and needs to be considered with other factors as well: community sentiment, market events etc.
BAYC and Milady have shown us that every collection has its unique story, and understanding these narratives can lead to more informed decisions.
Our Favourite Tweets
🐥 Is Blur dying? We don’t agree but interesting to see the market’s perspective
Blur is finally dying, but not before nearly dragging down the NFT market with it.
Here's a mini thread/rant on how we got here and what I think happens next ↓
— gino.eth 💽 (@GinoTheGhost)
Aug 20, 2023
🐥 $PRIME is the GameFi token that has done spectacularly well in the recent weeks. Some counter takes:
A sober take on Parallel's $PRIME
$PRIME is up 2x in the last 10 days as Axie OGs & CT influencers are buying & promoting $PRIME
Haven't played the game yet but @Paralle@ParallelAiRevreached out to offer beta access so my thoughts might change after playing the beta and most… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1…/
— Vader (@VaderResearch)
Aug 20, 2023
🐥 Yuga Labs moving away from OpenSea in order to collect more royalties
On @opensea's decision to sunset their Operator Filter.
— Yuga Labs (@yugalabs)
Aug 18, 2023
🐥 Azuki gets into…football? Signs up Patrick Mahomes and will do a raffle for a 1/1 NFT on 24 Aug
1/ As Head of Growth at @Azuki, one of the best parts of my job is connecting with brands whose stories resonate with our community.
We’re thrilled to collab with @MuseumofMahomes featuring Super Bowl MVP quarterback Patrick Mahomes, with football season around the corner.
— WHIZWANG ☕️ (@whizwang)
Aug 21, 2023
🐥 RECUR shuts down without warning. A sad day for the space.
RECUR looted $70m+ off this space and decided to shut down on Friday.
This is why we'll never go mainstream...
— Aaron (@AaronSage)
Aug 20, 2023
🐥 A mental model for Ethereum: a game environment?
Ethereum is a Game Environment 📝
People describe Ethereum in a lot of different ways.
It’s a smart contract platform, an asset ledger, an always-on financial system, a massive multiplayer online money game, and so on and so forth.
The gaming metaphor is the one that I’ve… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
— Ben Roy (@benroy__)
Aug 21, 2023
🐥 Sam Spratt’s collection sells out instantly. Shows that there is still demand in the market, just that its very selective/sophisticated
209 pieces of @SamSpratt just sold out in 2 minutes.
Each piece cost 3.33 $ETH, that's 696 $ETH over $ 1 million.
You deserve every single bit of this Sam, you worked really hard and have been really innovative to this space!
Big day for ART! twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
— MoonCat2878 (@mooncat2878)
Aug 21, 2023
🐥 Three early NFT projects: Mints are free
Early Projects Spotlight 🧵
Here are 3 most interesting early projects up to date
Click to read 👇
— Kinetic⚡️ (@kineticweb3)
Aug 20, 2023
🍿 Highlight x Fingerprints DAO on 22 August. This is part of Base’s onchain summer.
🍿 Adidas x BAPE on 22 August. 100 pairs only.
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Disclaimer: This newsletter is for educational purposes only. None of this is financial or investment advice. It is not a solicitation to buy or sell any assets. Minting and buying NFTs is risky. Please do your own research.